In a low demand,
spending and growth world which is evident in low domestic inflation and oil
prices (only moving higher after supply cuts) we expect the monetary-policy to
be accommodative and increase growth expectations... Governor could tighten
anytime when inflation mounts, but low inflation must follow rate cuts to
increase falling growth estimates, growth is an underlying objective of the monetary
policy besides price-stability and full-employment... Changing inflation index
too frequently might create uncertainty for investors... The government is
committed to improve the supply-side and lower inflation through selective
controlling the prices of important commodities... Lower borrowing cost is
important for investment and supply...
Nonetheless the CPI in
January at 3.2 % is lower than the WPI above 5% raises question about the
supply management when WPI index is expected to be lower than CPI i.e.
Wholesale-Prices and Consumer-Prices, respectively. The major element that
increases the differences between WPI and CPI is cost incurred on wages on
transmit and the transport costs. Paul Krugman shows that lower transport costs
lead to lower-prices and increase demand and growth and the population or the labour-force
increases around markets and industrial centers... Therefore, we might expect
that that higher transport cost would increase CPI more than WPI and not the
other way, WPI more than CPI. However, the different weightage of same things
might in both of the indices show difference, but that could not reverse the
argument the common understanding about the market that CPI would in most of
the cases be higher than the WPI because of the cost of replacement from the
wholesale market to the retail market. In short, we may say that the WPI and
the CPI numbers are inconsistent.
As far as we know, WPI
and CPI have same goods and services in the indices, but could have different
weightage and Core-WPI has same things like WPI except that it excludes volatile
food and fuel prices whereas Core-CPI is equivalent to CPI excluding food and
fuel prices...
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