Monday, December 4, 2017

Wages or real wages are important for demand and growth...





MMS was lucky by mistake due to the 2008 Recession which forced the government and RBI to give unusual stimulus to the economy which pushed growth above 10% and inflation 20% without supply side reforms and competitive management of supply and food security...


Supply side was very poor which increased the inflation and interest rate for the private demand resulting in low demand and growth even before the UPA left... he was not very good at undoing stimulus at the right time which resulted in UPA debacle... even a simple economist expect inflation when money supply is increased, but he left fiscal spending loose and increase demand and inflation go turf amid poor supply side...


However, exports in 2013 increased at the cost of domestic demand... Depreciation and inflation cut real wages and also increased interest rate, higher borrowing cost made exports uncompetitive later...


And, inflation increased from 4.2% -8.4%... and data on wages is not there... when inflation goes up real wages go down... economy becomes more competitive... it helps capitalists... at cost of labour demand...


Higher inflation expectations increase supply and lower price expectations too if interest rates are cut... RBI is expecting higher inflation, but not growth, how is that possible, why, both increase and fall in the same direction... Inflation expectation would reduce consumption and savings and investment... If it had said that growth is expected to improve and inflation too, both then it would create better expectations and more spending and would be consistent...The natural real rate of interest or borrowing cost would be very low in the long run... both Keynes and Milton Friedman has separately concluded... Keynes has talked of euthanasia of the rent on capital... Milton Friedman has also found the Optimal Monetary Policy with zero interest rate...


BJP or anyparty should highlight its economic achievements, people understand numbers better... The party has ruled the state for long... The list would have more heads... The party should highlight what it has done for all... Especially wages, incomes, poor... and change in the standard of living... Poor, salaried, rich... Muslims are much better off in Gujarat as compared to other states... The Gujarat Model is widely hailed at least till 2013... People should be able to know what the party has done for them, all...


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