MMS was lucky by
mistake due to the 2008 Recession which forced the government and RBI to give
unusual stimulus to the economy which pushed growth above 10% and inflation 20%
without supply side reforms and competitive management of supply and food security...
Supply side was very
poor which increased the inflation and interest rate for the private demand
resulting in low demand and growth even before the UPA left... he was not very
good at undoing stimulus at the right time which resulted in UPA debacle...
even a simple economist expect inflation when money supply is increased, but he
left fiscal spending loose and increase demand and inflation go turf amid poor
supply side...
However, exports in 2013
increased at the cost of domestic demand... Depreciation and inflation cut real
wages and also increased interest rate, higher borrowing cost made exports
uncompetitive later...
And, inflation
increased from 4.2% -8.4%... and data on wages is not there... when inflation
goes up real wages go down... economy becomes more competitive... it helps
capitalists... at cost of labour demand...
Higher inflation
expectations increase supply and lower price expectations too if interest rates
are cut... RBI is expecting higher inflation, but not growth, how is that
possible, why, both increase and fall in the same direction... Inflation
expectation would reduce consumption and savings and investment... If it had
said that growth is expected to improve and inflation too, both then it would
create better expectations and more spending and would be consistent...The
natural real rate of interest or borrowing cost would be very low in the long
run... both Keynes and Milton Friedman has separately concluded... Keynes has
talked of euthanasia of the rent on capital... Milton Friedman has also found
the Optimal Monetary Policy with zero interest rate...
BJP or anyparty should
highlight its economic achievements, people understand numbers better... The
party has ruled the state for long... The list would have more heads... The
party should highlight what it has done for all... Especially wages, incomes,
poor... and change in the standard of living... Poor, salaried, rich... Muslims
are much better off in Gujarat as compared to other states... The Gujarat Model
is widely hailed at least till 2013... People should be able to know what the party
has done for them, all...
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