Economists often argue
that higher real interest rates incentivize savings which is true because of
lower price-level increase, both, consumption and savings increase depending
upon marginal propensity to consume which lowers with higher wages/incomes
which inversely means that who earns less saves lower portion of his income and
consume more. Higher real interest or lower prices means higher
savings/deposits which is sufficient to increase savings and when you
discourage consumption to increase deposits in way you divert resource which
depends upon trade-off between consumption and deposits that depends on the real
wages and less significant for interest rate because consumption and income is
fixed or sticky in the short run. Savings and investment work through
multiplier, but consumption through accelerator plus multiplier, consumption
increases first then it also increases investment and diversion lowers growth and
the multiples value and growth expectations.
Suppose in a economy
which only incentivizes savings and investment, and not the consumption… so
prices would start to fall and would increase unemployment, both, demand
through lower consumption (accelerator) first and then supply (multiplier) goes
down, in such a economy growth would go down with lower employment and
investment, supply-demand and prices…In such an economy more investment at
lower borrowing cost and nominal wages due to higher unemployment and less
bargaining power of the labour would increase employment and demand and growth.
However, there could be
another scenario in which on consumption increase and not the supply… in such an
economy inflation would again lower demand and then supply through higher
borrowing cost, it would itself increase cost and prices economy wide which
would also lower real interest rate and savings and investment, both the value
of accelerator and multiplier would again go down resulting in low growth and
growth expectations…
Therefore, in both the
cases interest rate intervention deviates the economy from its long run
trajectory. The economy is one the Knife-Edge...
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