Wednesday, December 13, 2017

Accelerator + Multiplier would work...




Economists often argue that higher real interest rates incentivize savings which is true because of lower price-level increase, both, consumption and savings increase depending upon marginal propensity to consume which lowers with higher wages/incomes which inversely means that who earns less saves lower portion of his income and consume more. Higher real interest or lower prices means higher savings/deposits which is sufficient to increase savings and when you discourage consumption to increase deposits in way you divert resource which depends upon trade-off between consumption and deposits that depends on the real wages and less significant for interest rate because consumption and income is fixed or sticky in the short run. Savings and investment work through multiplier, but consumption through accelerator plus multiplier, consumption increases first then it also increases investment and diversion lowers growth and the multiples value and growth expectations.


Suppose in a economy which only incentivizes savings and investment, and not the consumption… so prices would start to fall and would increase unemployment, both, demand through lower consumption (accelerator) first and then supply (multiplier) goes down, in such a economy growth would go down with lower employment and investment, supply-demand and prices…In such an economy more investment at lower borrowing cost and nominal wages due to higher unemployment and less bargaining power of the labour would increase employment and demand and growth.


However, there could be another scenario in which on consumption increase and not the supply… in such an economy inflation would again lower demand and then supply through higher borrowing cost, it would itself increase cost and prices economy wide which would also lower real interest rate and savings and investment, both the value of accelerator and multiplier would again go down resulting in low growth and growth expectations…


Therefore, in both the cases interest rate intervention deviates the economy from its long run trajectory. The economy is one the Knife-Edge...    

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