The Price-Level or
Inflation is expected to increases when employment, real wages/incomes and
effective demand increase after slowdown and low prices and interest rates,
that is how inflation targeting is likely to work... But, inflation
expectations would lower demand, consumption and savings would go down, and
would also lower investment, employment and supply, which would exert a
downward pressure on the prices, interest rate and wages and that would result
in the lower price-level... Since, inflation has a downward bias due to higher
interest rate trajectory, itself; it would restrict yet to achieve full
employment and the potential growth rate... The higher interest rate
expectations have lowered demand for debt and lowered supply and growth and
expectations... The assumption of the inflation in the model runs against the
fundamentals of the economics and the economy to increase prices and growth and
expectations...
The Fed might include
borrowing cost or price to the economy to calculate CPI which affects everybody
in the same way like fuel or transport cost or prices... Higher borrowing cost
is likely to get transmitted to other prices and inflation, too...
According the article,
the Fed might try to achieve zero or neutral monetary policy by adjusting the
borrowing cost higher equal to inflation, but that would itself increase the
inflation through higher borrowing cost and the price level, and that may end
up to be a mirage... Everytime the Fed tries to zero real rates by increasing
the borrowing cost, inflation too would go up, commodity prices plus higher
borrowing cost...
However, Milton
Friedman has too proposed the Optimal Monetary Policy Framework in which he
advised nominal interest rate close to zero or deflation equal to real interest
rate which also means zero nominal interest rate and zero real interest rate to
get the monetary policy neutral...
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