Monday, December 18, 2017

The Zero Neutral Rate...





The Price-Level or Inflation is expected to increases when employment, real wages/incomes and effective demand increase after slowdown and low prices and interest rates, that is how inflation targeting is likely to work... But, inflation expectations would lower demand, consumption and savings would go down, and would also lower investment, employment and supply, which would exert a downward pressure on the prices, interest rate and wages and that would result in the lower price-level... Since, inflation has a downward bias due to higher interest rate trajectory, itself; it would restrict yet to achieve full employment and the potential growth rate... The higher interest rate expectations have lowered demand for debt and lowered supply and growth and expectations... The assumption of the inflation in the model runs against the fundamentals of the economics and the economy to increase prices and growth and expectations...



The Fed might include borrowing cost or price to the economy to calculate CPI which affects everybody in the same way like fuel or transport cost or prices... Higher borrowing cost is likely to get transmitted to other prices and inflation, too...



According the article, the Fed might try to achieve zero or neutral monetary policy by adjusting the borrowing cost higher equal to inflation, but that would itself increase the inflation through higher borrowing cost and the price level, and that may end up to be a mirage... Everytime the Fed tries to zero real rates by increasing the borrowing cost, inflation too would go up, commodity prices plus higher borrowing cost...



However, Milton Friedman has too proposed the Optimal Monetary Policy Framework in which he advised nominal interest rate close to zero or deflation equal to real interest rate which also means zero nominal interest rate and zero real interest rate to get the monetary policy neutral...

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