Friday, April 24, 2020

Open Economy with Caveats...


The Crisis has underlined the importance of hygienic food and living in our lives, though, there is no life without risk, risk is everywhere, but we need to reduce it with our intelligence, we all must maintain hygiene in our lives, in the slowdown-lockdown and after that... People must not visit hotspots, they must be sealed... and not even out of it, especially the patients... People must feel safe... INDIA has a very low death rate compared to other countries and even people are conscious of their health, now... PM could announce big relief to the unemployed and spending on the corona fight... When everybody has stopped spending this is the time for the Gov to increase spending... it would increase income and demand of others too...


Complete lockdown is unnecessary... Complete lockdown in regions where the contagion rate is high like Delhi and Mumbai seems plausible... It has been observed that foreign travel and airports have been a prominent carrier of COV-19... Densely populated areas with high rate of the infection must be continued as hotspots... The situation demand gradual relaxation in the lockdown with precaution... Rs 1000 is just piecemeal effort to maintain spending and growth during high unemployment and low demand which could be doubled through corona bonds and more spending on the medical facilities in this emergency...


Many celebrity personalities have been cured after being tested positive including the British PM... death rate is very low or cure rate is high... PM must increase spending improving health care facilities, providing world-class health... People must also learn about the importance of hygiene...


The PM has pointed that normalisation process could be underway after a week... PM has shown that the lockdown is unproductive as far as the economy is concerned and hence it would be lifted as early as possible with limits... This would curb the spread and could save the precious human capital, it is directly related to the health and productivity of the economy... In a week the spread curve could be plateaued followed by relaxations...


All countries must devote funds to find the corona vaccine following China and its expertise, this is the single act which could avoid a longen recession and uncertainty...


Those without jobs could claim pension... or provided unemployment benefits...


Market lockdown could create excess savings with people with regular income which could also find way in the market and could boost spending and prices after the lockdown is over, lower oil prices and interest rate would again increase real incomes and profits, though rare cases of hoarding are reported, but demand is low and increase in investment and employment and income would increase growth... The important thing is low cost must be passed on the consumers' prices to increase demand and growth, otherwise recovery could take long... Stimulus and more money supply would increase employment and demand and prices and supply and growth by increasing real incomes...



Lower oil prices and dollars are good for the INDIAn economy, they would increase competitiveness and productivity... Lower inflation and appreciation in the Rupee could increase foreign capital inflows.... Lower cost and prices could increase demand and growth, in the export sector too... Though, expectations about prices and recovery affect demand and spending... Lower prices increase demand and price expectation... when everybody spend or demand at the same time it could reinforce higher price expectations... Lower price expectations could delay spending until the economy bottom-out - prices especially... Higher price expectation increase demand and spending... Generally, periods of low growth or recession lies with lower prices or inflation and vice versa... Low prices are followed by higher demand and price expectations and high prices are followed by low prices and expectations... Mainly coz of monetary and fiscal policy that again follow recessions...

Wednesday, April 8, 2020

Lockdown as a Precaution and Hope for Stimulus...



Lockdown is bad for the economy and jobs, that is true... the govt could relax it with caveats... like controlling crowed on the markets places, schools except board exams might be closed, not to go out unnecessarily... The government could float corona bonds to feed the poor... interest rates are low... Gov must begin unemployment benefits and healthcare... interest rates are low which would crowd out private borrowing, less... Higher money supply and price expectations may increase investment and spending... lower supply has already showed price pressures and going forward, too, due to higher money demand, too...


Lower prices increase speculative demand of/for money and assets, stocks and inventories, G&S.. Lower prices increase the value of money and others, bonds included, lower yields increase bond prices and demand, stocks, too.. and price EXPECTATIONS... People start hoarding money and assets and G&S.... Lower price increase investment demand and price expectations, lower prices also increase real wages and interest rate expectations, lower prices increase savings and investment, and could also increase real exchange rate exports... Lower prices increase demand and employment given real wages/income/profits increase, too... Lower prices increase demand...


It is just pitiful to club INDIA with countries like Pakistan as far as corona fight in concerned... It is a country with more than billion people, it could deal effectively with coronavirus and has more than enough capacity to deal with any emergency as far as medical facilities are considered... Most likely growth would bounce back, since the deaths have been controlled even in China... Lockdown and isolation would go a long way to curb the spread.... Virus survive no more than 9 hrs in the air, isolation, fasting for a day and proper sanitisation could help… isolation has been more effective in dealing with spread... and found that TB vaccine could reduce the incidence...


Fixed return assets like deposits lose when bondprices and stockprices and inflation up go up, real returns or inflation adjusted returns, investors lose... During Chidambaram back before 2013 RBI floated inflation index bonds... High inflation reduces real rates or returns...


INDIA has been a leader in the fight with corona... 5000 infected and only 149 deaths... It has been more preemptive and proactive than other countries... Higher temperature could help curb the spread... This could be booster for the stocks... Even US has more than 22, 000 cases and more deaths compared to INDIA... Hope INDIA's recovery would be faster than the China and the countries with higher number of the spread... Before this corona war we have had two more wars the trade war and the oil war which kept the markets on their toe... It is self destructive...


Gov could relax lockdown on the off days so that people could restore again with all precaution and sanitisation... Only male members one day and female next day...


Predicting stock price is very difficult... It is only a prophecy... investors should not be worried... Rating agencies gave wrong ratings during the 2008 GFC....

Economic growth around...

  Food and fuel inflation is high in INDIA... the main sources of inflation... Lower fuel taxes could help lower inflation and increase prod...