It is Difficult to Predict Inflation...

Expectations are important for managing spending and price stability, when prices or inflation and expectations are high, lower spending could help contain or lower prices, though, when prices and expectations are low, higher spending could help increase prices. The RBI could forward guide that agents shall reduce or increase spending by forecasting prices even after the inflation target. It could help increase returns on investment. Because if prices increase or decrease as per expectations it could help time investment spending and consumption, too. If, everybody spends according to forecast or expectations about the prices to stabilise it there could be stability in the price level or inflation and profits could be maximised. If everybody follows the central banks' decision or forecast more price expectations could be actualised. 

 

Prices and growth depend upon spending which depends upon price or inflation expectations. Higher expectations increase the spending which could be self-fulfilling and increase current prices and vice versa. Disinflation or lower inflation expectations could also delay demand and increase supply reinforcing disinflation... and low growth... Stable inflation expectations could help prices and macro-economic and growth stability. 

INDIA has the highest inflation expectations among the major economies. Higher than the official inflation target of 4% in the medium term by the RBI. The divergence between the two is unexplained and could result from peoples' ignorance about the RBI's pledge. 11% inflation expectations are too much high compared to the official target. Inflation has barely increased 10% in the recent past.  

INDIA lacks a good social security system - healthcare and unemployment benefits - which are important for the well-being of all. 

The government has raised a windfall from oil duties in the past 5 yrs when the prices reached $25 per barrel which is an unprecedented amount. It did not let lower prices reach the public. Which also lowered productivity by increasing the transport cost and inflation and higher interest rates. 

Modi govt did not think of productivity and competitiveness when it reaped wind fall from excise duty and transport cost swelled for business and people. The credit of lower excise duty goes to the opposition. 

Lower inflation, higher real wages and incomes, and more purchasing power for the public. Lower inflation expectations could delay demand and increase supply reinforcing low current prices and higher purchasing power. The value of money shall increase over time. Higher interest rate expectations and lower demand and price expectations could increase supply which is what we want. Currently, at this point of time higher interest rates are good for the economy.

 

Too much rate hikes could increase NPAs of NBFCs. Last time when Urjit Patel increased interest rates in 2018 due to rising oil prices he had to resign. The animity between the govt and central banks over rate hikes is common. 

As far as economic policy is concerned Manmohan Singh's regime was a lot better. During Singh's period wages and incomes increased 107% and inflation increased 102% and during the BJP wages and incomes increased 29% and inflation increased 57%. Real wages and incomes suffered during the BJP. INDIA has become poorer compared to the last regime... 

In the face of heightened geo political tension both demand and supply may go down which means further delay in achieving the inflation target. If a competent organisation like the Federal Reserve cannot gauge prices, it is tough for anybody to predict what will happen to the markets under uncertainty. Stock markets too depend upon the demand and supply of the stocks which is exceedingly difficult to predict. They could change anytime. Bulls are followed by bears and bears are followed by bulls. 

If INDIA buy's Russian oil and add to its trade surplus and capacity to continue war on Ukraine, 
it is in the hands of the govt to tackle external problems, too, war has been the sole reason for higher inflation and inflation expectations. The govt is trying to boost exports when there is environment of gloom outside the country which is not going to work until the external situation improves. This time the problem is imports and depreciating currency and higher spending and debt. INDIA debt to GDP ratio has deteriorated during the last 8 yrs of BJP while it reduced under the UPA since 2004 to 2014 (tradingeconomics.com) ... Even the govt does not have the unemployemnt numbers, which is important for the RBI and policymaking and forming expectations about inflation... Labourforce participation rate has gone down from 64% during UPA to 46% under BJP. Unemployment has increased during BJP. LFPR has reduced 50% during BJP. 

If the discussion on unemployemnt (rate) is not done it is difficult to predict the inflation and inflation expectations. Phillips curve shows that an economy faces trade-off between inflation and unemployment. 

High public deficit and the resulting debt to GDP ratio and higher inflation and higher interest rate and interest rate payments pose a threat for macro-stability. Higher inflation and expectations point to reckless public spending. INDIA is among the worlds' worst inflation expectations nations. Debt and then more debt and taxes to pay debt could kick off a cycle of low private sector demand. 

INDIA is a super-power; it has the 2nd largest workforce after China and the world's fastest growing major economy. Its nominal GDP is around Rs 203 trillion and the US nominal GDP is $ 20 trillion. Discounting for the exchange rate INDIA's GDP is 10 times larger than the US GDP. Superpower is a state of Mind. It is independent to support its people. Its sovereignty is intact. There are also many poor people in the US around 10% people are still poor in the US. INDIA has more land area than the US. INDIA is a superpower though people do not realise it...

Demonetisation is the biggest scandal and a far-reaching example of extreme corruption during the current regime, nobody got nothing, and despotism is more dangerous than nepotism. 

If China could clock double-digit growth for more than a decade, INDIA too could achieve 9% GDP growth rate with conducive policy reinforcement. China has achieved this growth despite protectionism... INDIA is a Democracy and is more open and market-oriented. Free Market Economies tend to flare better than protected systems. Democracy means public welfare is top most priority and equality of oppourtunity, anybody could become President and PM.

 

Rate hikes by the Fed shall be seen as an attempt to contain the effect of rising inflation by rewarding savings to contain real returns and to save more to lower spending and inflation, those who would defer spending would also be rewarded through higher real wages... Rate hikes are a signal to lower prices and expectations... If people follow the Fed ie when it wants spending, both investment and consumption, people spend and when it wants less spending, people spend less, it would help control the price level or inflation would also increase returns. 

It is not that the Fed could increase interest rates indefinitely as people and investors could start defaulting on their debt obligations... There is a limit... NPAs could rise... 

Investors must realise that delaying demand could increase returns which could reinforce low current prices. Consumers and investors must realise that they would be rewarded if they delay spending and increase spending when prices go low. Fed is now determined to lower inflation and is ready to sacrifice some employment and growth and even a slowdown would not stop it, prices would come down in the short run that is a certainty. People must defer spending to gain from interest rate hikes and lower price expectations. 

Economists concentrate on business cycles, busts follow booms and booms follow busts... (Revised)...

Prices and growth and expectations have quite a relationship... Low prices mean low growth and vice versa... The objective is to stablise prices and growth at full employment... Prices or inflation expectations affect spending and growth, too, lower price expectations delay demand and increase supply vice-versa... If we have high inflation expectations it means spending and growth would increase and the chance of a recession is low and vice versa. Though, if there is low inflation it also means that spending and growth would increase... Otherwise, if we have low inflation expectations it would delay demand and increase supply and if we have high prices it means that spending and growth could go down ie there is the possibility of a slowdown or recession...

Prices or inflation and unemployment decide whether we are in a recession... A recession is marked by low inflation and high unemployment and booms coincide with high inflation and low unemployment... Price expectations could tell that we are approaching a recession or a slowdown... Higher price expectations mean that demand would increase and supply could go down while lower price expectations mean that supply would increase and demand could go down... Disinflation or lower price expectations could signal a slowdown or recession...

Inflation and expectations in the face of supply-side disruption show that we are nowhere near a slack and growth has achieved its pre-covid level...

INDIA's productivity has been severely hit by demo, covid, and, now, war on Ukraine, which is reflected in higher prices and expectations and high-interest rates... A higher cost of capital means lower productivity and considerable delay in $ 5 trillion economy...

If the point is to reduce or control demand and prices, higher prices could themselves be a potent way to do the same and more effectively, instead, of decelerating the whole economy, at once, higher prices mean low demand, but higher price expectations could increase demand and prices... In the UK inflation has increased with rate hikes which means that a higher interest rate could increase inflation because supply could go down...

If the RBI could commit to a strong rupee-dollar exchange rate the foreign exchange inflows could increase... For this they need to increase demand for the rupee, they can settle exports and debt in the rupee... RBI could float rupee-denominated overseas bonds... The internationalisation of the rupee could be an important reform to increase the demand and value of the rupee... It could also help lower domestic and imported inflation and depreciation and depreciation expectations... Lower inflation could also mean productivity and competitiveness could increase...

INDIA is a supply-constrained economy. The RBI's effort shall be to increase supply. Supply might be positively correlated to prices and demand ie when prices and demand increase supply increases, too, and, vice versa. Though, supply is negatively correlated to lower demand and price expectations... Higher prices mean that supply and demand could increase and higher prices and interest rate expectations could lower demand and price expectations and increase supply expectations, which could reinforce lower current prices and vice versa. It doesn't matter much that interest rates are increased or if the RBI does nothing...

 

Investment spending depends upon expectations; it depends on what all other investors are expecting... Investors unconsciously create booms and busts, through the expectations channel... If they expect that the market is going to go up they buy which actually increases the market. And, if they expect that the market is going to go down they sell which actually results in correction. Nonetheless, too much negative or positive exuberance or appreciation and correction could mean that the market has gone irrational or expectations from the market can be classified as irrational... In contrast to other markets, the cost and return in the stock market for everybody are different; investors buy and sell at different prices... According to the rational expectations, the investors shall follow the profit maximization behavior. If everybody buys and sells at the same price everybody's profit could be maximized... Markets are forward-looking they could factor in expectations in the current prices... Too much correction or appreciation means that markets are gone irrational, against this, if expectations are rational markets would show stability, significant corrections would be bought and significant appreciation would be sold, which could make the market stable, moving within price expectations...

 

INDIA has lost its purchasing power by 25%... since 2014... Instead of becoming a $5 trillion the economy has lost its real value by 25% due to inflation and depreciation... But others do not need to pay in Dollars like INDIA... UK, Japan, Europe... They could pay in their own currencies...

If this is the scene the RBI should use capital controls like China... The RBI may use capital controls like China to stop the sudden exodus of foreign exchange... The RBI could also sell bonds to quiescence rupee depreciation since a lower money supply would make the rupee strong, under OMOs...

Masala Bonds could further increase the demand for the rupee... If the RBI really cares for its foreign currency reserves the road goes only through a strong rupee... Appreciation and expectations could increase foreign exchange inflows which are likely to further increase appreciation... Imported inflation and competitiveness could only be contained or increased by a strong currency...

Both appreciation and depreciation are good only to an extent in the short; too much of both is not good... Anything which happens must be only gradual so that people adjust slowly... Depreciation expectations might delay demand for exports, though appreciation expectations might increase demand for exports... INDIA's imports and imported inflation require a strong currency... Lower inflation means higher productivity and competitiveness... INDIA shall follow the US model instead of China...

Rupee depreciation is not natural and bad for imports-exports, too. All currencies have convergence in the exchange rate, and all the big economies' currencies have appreciated with time, including China, except Japan, depreciation would also increase imported inflation and would also make exports uncompetitive due to higher cost and would lower real wages and domestic demand and growth rate. Managing exchange rate is in the realm of Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy, too. In the long run, INDIA's currency is weakening. For the foreigners' the country is cheap 80 times, but the domestic public pays 80 times more... Expectations from the rupee is that it would depreciate which could also delay demand for exports and further increase depreciation due to less dollar income and higher demand for dollars... RBI is saying that the rupee is market-determined, though it could also decide the exchange rate like it decides the nominal interest rate, the RBI has the sole power to decide the exchange rate.

Fixed exchange rates are not permitted to fluctuate freely or respond to daily changes in demand and supply. The government fixes the exchange value of the currency. For example, the European Central Bank (ECB) may fix its exchange rate at €1 = $1 (assuming that the euro follows the fixed exchange rate). RBI shall adopt a fixed exchange rate system to control imported inflation.

Depreciation and expectations delay export demand... which could increase the trade deficit and imbalance in the Balance of Payments (BoP)-capital and current accounts... INDIA is unlikely to succeed unless there is a stable exchange regime... Higher inflation and capital costs make exports uncompetitive.

A higher interest rate and a strong exchange rate could increase foreign exchange inflows... Both rate cuts and rate hikes are good at the right time. Both are aimed at stabilising the prices and growth. At least this seems consistent. Time consistency of the economic policy is a real problem. Sometimes rate hikes are good and sometimes rate cuts are good for prices and growth stability at full employment...

 

Analyst’s job is to make investors invest more and more on significant corrections, delaying could further destabilise markets... Analysts shall first give priority to existing customers; it would also be good for fresh investors and investment... The problem is to find out ways to change the outcome...

We have learnt this time that when base year's prices or inflation are too low we could expect higher inflation and growth in the next period or future... and, vice versa... This is called the base and debase effect... Negative earnings may not mean that earnings are negative, but only lower compared to last quarter or year... Companies with consistent forecast and actual earnings and with higher earnings in the next period are likely to get higher investments... 

 

US is a relatively rich economy, people could weather higher interest rates, by the way, interest rates are very low given historical rates and emerging market interest rates... 1.75% nominal interest rate and 8% inflation give a real interest rate -6.25 which is at an all-time low... If people find it bottom and think as per the value of debt, inflation decreases the value of debt, and increases investment spending it could further reinforce higher inflation... Higher inflation and interest rate expectations could further reduce supply and increase demand...

The Fed is showing concern not to lower real wages by inflation, but too many rate hikes could vanish employment, too, after all, both, seem inconsistent... To save standard of living they are cutting on jobs, which is not justifiable...

Rate hikes could lower demand and price expectations which could also increase supply... This is clearly a supply-side problem... Rate hikes and lower demand and price expectations could also increase supply... Lower price expectations and higher supply are not good for the stock market, though it may also increase the supply of G&S in the broader economy due to lower demand and price expectations...

The relationship between higher interest rates and inflation is quite significant, both have moved up together... This could be because of higher borrowing costs and lower supply and higher demand, which could reinforce higher prices...

The real interest rate is negative and bottoming out which actually lowers the value of debt that can increase investment demand and spending which could further increase prices... What the central banks are doing is what they are supposed to do, it helps everyone. This is what they are supposed to do. It also helps inflation-adjusted equity returns. It is good for the economy...evidence we have is that the prices or inflation are increasing with rate hikes...

 

The oil prices increase we are seeing is the result of production and supply cuts by OPEC to balance the oil exporting countries' budgets... Importing countries must raise the issue because it affects inflation and their budget estimates, too...

A recession in the US would help ease prices that may help INDIA... A recession could help lower food and fuel inflation and could increase foreign exchange and investment inflows... Lower inflation could increase export competitiveness...

This time the Fed may try selling bonds mixed up with a rate hike of 50 basis points... The Fed may also try quantitative tightening to calm down inflation... Bond selling could help keep rate hikes low...

 

The rate of growth of GDP is negative doesn’t mean that GDP has become negative; it is only the rate of growth of GDP is not as fast as the last quarter or year rate of growth of GDP, though the nominal or money GDP could be quite positive. For instance, if the last quarter GDP is considered 100, a -5% decline would mean that the rate of growth of GDP is only 5% less than the rate of growth of GDP last quarter of the year or only 95% compared to the rate of growth of GDP last quarter or year. This only few people understand and of course the common public, too. But, investors are more significant from the point of view (investment) spending because they have money to speculate on the prices and have the ability to hold on, though consumption spending may also vary. A recession is nothing, but a slowdown in spending of two quarters (may be) which depends upon price expectations and spending, there is also the inverted yield curve idea. The growth rate of GDP and the rate of growth of prices could have quite a relationship; the two-quarters analogy could also be applied to the rate of growth of prices and applies to the same definition of recession, two quarters of disinflation could also mean a recession, too… The lower rate of growth of GDP expectations could also mean a lower rate of growth of price expectations which may delay spending and the recession and lower prices could actually become a reality.  At this time when the central bank wants people to delay-defer spending through higher interest rates which could increase the slowdown in the growth rate of GDP and lower demand and price expectations may also increase supply which could actually lower prices that is what is needed to lower interest rate and increase spending again. When the central bank wants less spending people shall spend less and when it wants more spending people shall spend more that is in the interest of the economy and investment. If the economy behaves as expected and the element of surprise is less the loss could be minimized. Inflation expectations lower supply which could reinforce higher current prices... Though, higher prices could lower demand and increase supply and reinforce lower current prices. Higher borrowing costs could lower inflation expectations and could also increase supply. Higher borrowing costs could also delay spending, which is good for the economy. Prices and growth depend upon spending which depends upon price or inflation expectations. Higher expectations increase the spending which could be self-fulfilling and increase current prices and vice versa.