Thursday, October 20, 2016

Shaping Expectations, An Awkward Observation...




Shaping expectations is important, though, difficult by the way of targeting variables... It is really an irony that if we target a variable and try to carve expectations it works in the opposite direction... For example, if we target inflation and shape inflation expectations it takes us in the opposite direction, deflation... because inflation would make things costly which means less purchasing power and spending, moreover it increases savings because of higher future inflation-expectations, people would demand less and save more... Nonetheless, if we could try to target lower-prices or inflation people would spend more and save less because of lower prices and price-expectations, they would feel richer, spend more and increase inflation in the future... For further understanding we could take example of targeting higher interest-rate and expectation, it would again lead to lower spending and lower interest-rate... Moreover, if we try to target lower exchange-rate, lower demand for imports and foreign-exchange would make foreign currency cheap and increase imports in future... It looks we should try to target variables other-way if we want them to work better.....

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